Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-01-02 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 4 Seattle Kraken (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 58.9%

SEA: 41.1%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.14

SEA: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Stat	VAN	SEA
Season SV%	0.905	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.72	2.77

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	31	27	4	87.1%	3.35	1	-0.65
SEA	Joey Daccord	27	24	3	88.9%	4.92	5	1.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • VAN at home vs SEA: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	VAN 2 - 5 SEA	SEA	VAN
2026-02-28	SEA 5 - 1 VAN	SEA	SEA
2026-01-02	VAN 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	VAN
2025-12-29	SEA 2 - 3 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-04-02	VAN 0 - 5 SEA	SEA	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	16	0	0.76
1	SEA	19	0	0.86
2	VAN	20	3	2.23
2	SEA	8	0	0.72
3	VAN	14	1	1.12
3	SEA	8	0	0.22
4	VAN	5	1	0.61
4	SEA	4	0	0.39
5	VAN	3	0	0.20
5	SEA	3	1	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 4 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8