Utah Hockey Club at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 4 - 1 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 45.9%

UTA: 54.1%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.29

UTA: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	NJD	UTA
Season SV%	0.884	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	31	30	1	96.8%	2.92	0	1.92
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	30	26	4	86.7%	3.17	3	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • NJD at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	NJD 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	NJD
2026-01-03	NJD 4 - 1 UTA	NJD	UTA
2025-12-19	UTA 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	UTA
2025-03-01	UTA 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	UTA
2024-10-14	NJD 3 - 0 UTA	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	15	0	0.87
1	UTA	18	0	1.46
2	NJD	15	3	1.60
2	UTA	12	0	0.42
3	NJD	10	0	0.70
3	UTA	18	0	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown