Montreal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 0 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 42.8%

MTL: 57.2%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.88

MTL: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	STL	MTL
Season SV%	0.869	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	26	26	0	100.0%	3.64	3	3.64
MTL	Jacob Fowler	19	17	2	89.5%	3.35	3	1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • STL at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	STL 2 - 0 MTL	STL	MTL
2025-12-07	MTL 3 - 4 STL	STL	MTL
2025-03-25	STL 6 - 1 MTL	STL	STL
2024-10-26	MTL 5 - 2 STL	MTL	MTL
2024-02-11	MTL 2 - 7 STL	STL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	10	1	1.01
1	MTL	11	1	0.72
2	STL	10	0	0.95
2	MTL	16	0	1.21
3	STL	8	2	1.39
3	MTL	21	2	1.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown