Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

NYI: 61.3%

TOR: 38.7%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.12

TOR: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs TOR: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NYI
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	0.53
1	TOR	15	0	0.78
2	NYI	13	0	0.70
2	TOR	16	1	1.41
3	NYI	16	1	0.85
3	TOR	6	1	0.63
4	NYI	2	0	0.25
4	TOR	2	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 2.7