Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 53.3%

COL: 46.7%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.01

COL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	CAR	COL
Season SV%	0.865	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	35	30	5	85.7%	6.09	7	1.09
COL	Scott Wedgewood	28	25	3	89.3%	3.46	4	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CAR at home vs COL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	CAR 3 - 5 COL	COL	CAR
2025-10-23	COL 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-12-05	CAR 5 - 3 COL	CAR	CAR
2024-11-09	COL 6 - 4 CAR	COL	COL
2024-02-08	CAR 5 - 2 COL	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	19	2	1.75
1	COL	17	3	2.03
2	CAR	13	2	1.17
2	COL	15	2	1.30
3	CAR	13	0	0.54
3	COL	18	2	2.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown