Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions
2026-01-03 • Lenovo Center
Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CAR: 59.7%
COL: 40.3%
Expected Goals
CAR: 3.56
COL: 2.56
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 23-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.16 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | CAR | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.915 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.821 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CAR at home vs COL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | CAR 3 - 5 COL | COL | CAR |
| 2025-10-23 | COL 4 - 5 CAR | CAR | COL |
| 2024-12-05 | CAR 5 - 3 COL | CAR | CAR |
| 2024-11-09 | COL 6 - 4 CAR | COL | COL |
| 2024-02-08 | CAR 5 - 2 COL | CAR | CAR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:09 | CAR | Goal |
| 2 | 07:50 | CAR | Goal |
| 2 | 04:47 | CAR | Goal |
| 2 | 01:47 | CAR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:42 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:30 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 01:42 | CAR | Goal |
| 3 | 01:09 | CAR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.6 - 2.6