Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2026-01-04 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 61.2%
MTL: 38.8%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.75
MTL: 2.51
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | DAL | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.857 | 0.615 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 0% • DAL at home vs MTL: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | DAL 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | DAL |
| 2025-11-13 | MTL 0 - 7 DAL | DAL | MTL |
| 2025-01-16 | DAL 1 - 3 MTL | MTL | DAL |
| 2025-01-11 | MTL 1 - 2 DAL | DAL | MTL |
| 2024-02-10 | MTL 2 - 3 DAL | DAL | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:53 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 08:42 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:39 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:59 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:14 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:07 | DAL | Goal |
| 4 | 03:40 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.8 - 2.5