Anaheim Ducks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-05 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 7 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 51.0%

ANA: 49.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.55

ANA: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

ANA

Petr Mrazek - 3-4-0 | 0.865 SV% | 3.78 GAA

Stat	WSH	ANA
Season SV%	0.887	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.07	3.78

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	45	41	4	91.1%	3.40	2	-0.60
ANA	Petr Mrazek	29	22	7	75.9%	3.43	3	-3.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs ANA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-05	WSH 7 - 4 ANA	WSH	WSH
2025-12-05	ANA 4 - 3 WSH	ANA	WSH
2025-03-11	ANA 4 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-01-14	WSH 3 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH
2024-01-16	WSH 2 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	1.11
1	ANA	13	0	0.71
2	WSH	19	0	1.14
2	ANA	22	1	1.32
3	WSH	6	3	1.18
3	ANA	21	1	1.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown