Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-01-06 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 42.7%

COL: 57.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.10

COL: 3.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	TBL	COL
Season SV%	0.913	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	33	31	2	93.9%	3.04	3	1.04
COL	Scott Wedgewood	28	24	4	85.7%	3.69	4	-0.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs COL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	1	1.17
1	COL	10	0	0.55
2	TBL	18	0	0.83
2	COL	18	2	1.23
3	TBL	12	3	1.69
3	COL	18	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown