Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-01-06 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 44.8%

COL: 55.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.03

COL: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs COL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	1	1.17
1	COL	10	0	0.55
2	TBL	18	0	0.83
2	COL	18	2	1.23
3	TBL	12	3	1.69
3	COL	18	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4