Calgary Flames at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-01-08 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 62.3%

CGY: 37.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.32

CGY: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	BOS	CGY
Season SV%	0.882	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	29	28	1	96.6%	2.89	3	1.89
CGY	Dustin Wolf	30	26	4	86.7%	3.20	3	-0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	BOS 4 - 1 CGY	BOS	BOS
2025-12-29	CGY 2 - 1 BOS	CGY	CGY
2024-12-17	CGY 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	CGY
2024-11-07	BOS 4 - 3 CGY	BOS	BOS
2024-02-22	CGY 3 - 2 BOS	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	19	0	0.72
1	CGY	11	1	0.68
2	BOS	16	2	1.38
2	CGY	12	2	1.22
3	BOS	18	1	1.10
3	CGY	16	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown