Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-01-08 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 63.4%

TOR: 36.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.56

TOR: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	17	0	1.16
1	TOR	13	1	0.77
2	PHI	7	1	0.55
2	TOR	15	1	0.93
3	PHI	17	0	1.04
3	TOR	13	1	0.98
4	PHI	4	0	0.49
4	TOR	3	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.6 - 2.6