Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2026-01-10 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 61.2%
CGY: 38.8%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.34
CGY: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | PIT | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.902 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs CGY: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | CGY 1 - 4 PIT | PIT | CGY |
| 2026-01-10 | PIT 1 - 2 CGY | CGY | PIT |
| 2024-11-30 | PIT 6 - 2 CGY | PIT | PIT |
| 2024-10-22 | CGY 4 - 3 PIT | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-03-02 | CGY 4 - 3 PIT | CGY | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:33 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 09:17 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 00:42 | CGY | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.3 - 2.9