Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 63.1%

CGY: 36.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.24

CGY: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	PIT	CGY
Season SV%	0.886	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	25	23	2	92.0%	1.74	0	-0.26
CGY	Devin Cooley	28	27	1	96.4%	2.92	1	1.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	CGY 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-10	PIT 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PIT
2024-11-30	PIT 6 - 2 CGY	PIT	CGY
2024-10-22	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY
2024-03-02	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	7	1	0.62
1	CGY	13	0	0.62
2	PIT	19	0	1.51
2	CGY	9	0	0.26
3	PIT	13	0	0.79
3	CGY	13	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown