Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 5 - 4 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 43.8%

DAL: 56.2%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.06

DAL: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	SJS	DAL
Season SV%	0.895	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	20	16	4	80.0%	2.67	2	-1.33
DAL	Casey DeSmith	31	26	5	83.9%	3.55	1	-1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • SJS at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	DAL
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	SJS
2024-11-20	DAL 5 - 2 SJS	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	16	0	0.92
1	DAL	13	2	1.44
2	SJS	12	1	1.37
2	DAL	9	0	0.58
3	SJS	13	0	0.87
3	DAL	9	0	0.64
4	SJS	4	0	0.39
4	DAL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 5 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1