Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-01-11 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 46.7%

PIT: 53.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.29

PIT: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	BOS	PIT
Season SV%	0.882	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	27	27	0	100.0%	2.51	2	2.51
PIT	Stuart Skinner	19	18	1	94.7%	2.43	1	1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BOS at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	BOS
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	PIT
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	16	1	1.32
1	PIT	14	0	0.81
2	BOS	16	0	0.79
2	PIT	15	1	1.19
3	BOS	5	0	0.32
3	PIT	14	1	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown