BUF vs FLA - 2026-01-12
2026-01-12 • KeyBank Center
BUF 3 - 4 FLA
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 51.2%
FLA: 48.8%
Expected Goals
BUF: 2.47
FLA: 3.24
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 48%
Over 6.5: 32%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 19-12-1 | 0.881 SV% | 2.90 GAA
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:35 | FLA | Goal |
| 1 | 10:19 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 15:11 | FLA | Goal |
| 2 | 17:57 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 11:07 | FLA | Goal |
| 3 | 18:46 | FLA | Goal |
| 3 | 19:46 | FLA | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
BUF 3 - 4 FLA
Expected: 2.5 - 3.2