Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-01-12 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (67% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 33.1%

CAR: 66.9%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.41

CAR: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	DET	CAR
Season SV%	0.893	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	34	31	3	91.2%	3.83	1	0.83
CAR	Frederik Andersen	18	14	4	77.8%	2.62	3	-1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DET at home vs CAR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	CAR 5 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR
2026-01-12	DET 4 - 3 CAR	DET	CAR
2025-12-27	CAR 5 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR
2025-04-04	DET 5 - 3 CAR	DET	CAR
2025-03-14	CAR 4 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	9	2	1.06
1	CAR	21	0	1.27
2	DET	8	0	0.57
2	CAR	11	0	0.53
3	DET	9	0	0.51
3	CAR	20	1	1.81
4	DET	2	1	0.48
4	CAR	3	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.4 - 2.9