Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2026-01-12 • Xfinity Mobile Arena
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 56.9%
TBL: 43.1%
Expected Goals
PHI: 2.10
TBL: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 42%
Over 6.5: 27%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | PHI | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.950 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | PHI 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | PHI |
| 2026-01-10 | PHI 2 - 7 TBL | TBL | PHI |
| 2025-11-24 | TBL 3 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-17 | TBL 2 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-13 | PHI 4 - 3 TBL | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:10 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 00:33 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:29 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:40 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:29 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:39 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.2
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.1 - 3.1