Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-01-13 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 1 Dallas Stars

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 60.5%

DAL: 39.5%

Expected Goals

ANA: 4.00

DAL: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	ANA	DAL
Season SV%	0.888	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	25	24	1	96.0%	2.95	2	1.95
DAL	Casey DeSmith	25	22	3	88.0%	3.88	4	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • ANA at home vs DAL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	ANA 3 - 1 DAL	ANA	ANA
2025-12-19	ANA 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	ANA
2025-11-06	DAL 5 - 7 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-03-18	DAL 4 - 3 ANA	DAL	DAL
2025-02-04	ANA 2 - 1 DAL	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	20	0	1.17
1	DAL	8	0	0.41
2	ANA	12	2	1.10
2	DAL	14	1	1.47
3	ANA	16	2	1.61
3	DAL	14	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown