Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-01-14 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 8 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 42.6%

OTT: 57.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.28

OTT: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Stat	NYR	OTT
Season SV%	0.924	0.872
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.11	3.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	30	22	8	73.3%	3.80	2	-4.20
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	22	18	4	81.8%	1.78	1	-2.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-23	NYR 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-14	NYR 4 - 8 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-04	OTT 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	OTT
2025-03-08	OTT 4 - 3 NYR	OTT	OTT
2025-01-21	NYR 5 - 0 OTT	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	9	0	0.13
1	OTT	17	1	1.80
2	NYR	11	0	0.53
2	OTT	9	0	0.35
3	NYR	11	1	1.11
3	OTT	16	1	1.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown