Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 65.3%

TOR: 34.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.87

TOR: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	VGK	TOR
Season SV%	0.888	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	28	23	5	82.1%	2.35	0	-2.65
TOR	Joseph Woll	33	27	6	81.8%	3.40	2	-2.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	TOR
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	16	0	1.06
1	TOR	19	0	0.93
2	VGK	13	1	0.61
2	TOR	10	0	0.66
3	VGK	17	1	1.48
3	TOR	9	0	0.63
4	VGK	2	0	0.25
4	TOR	2	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.9 - 2.8