Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 59.1%

FLA: 40.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 4.08

FLA: 3.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	WSH	FLA
Season SV%	0.913	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	31	26	5	83.9%	4.71	4	-0.29
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	24	22	2	91.7%	3.10	3	1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs FLA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	1	0.78
1	FLA	23	0	1.43
2	WSH	26	2	1.95
2	FLA	9	1	0.85
3	WSH	8	0	0.37
3	FLA	18	3	2.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.8

Score Breakdown