Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2026-01-17 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Florida Panthers
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 61.9%
FLA: 38.1%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.79
FLA: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 21-17-1 | 0.871 SV% | 3.13 GAA
| Stat | WSH | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.837 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.857 | 0.889 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.80 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs FLA: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | WSH 2 - 5 FLA | FLA | WSH |
| 2025-12-29 | FLA 5 - 3 WSH | FLA | FLA |
| 2025-11-13 | FLA 6 - 3 WSH | FLA | FLA |
| 2025-03-22 | WSH 6 - 3 FLA | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-02-04 | WSH 6 - 3 FLA | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:23 | FLA | Goal |
| 2 | 15:16 | FLA | Goal |
| 2 | 11:40 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 10:04 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 02:04 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 19:26 | FLA | Goal |
| 3 | 18:40 | FLA | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Florida Panthers
Expected: 3.8 - 2.9