Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 61.5%

FLA: 38.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.66

FLA: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • WSH at home vs FLA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	WSH
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	1	0.78
1	FLA	23	0	1.43
2	WSH	26	2	1.95
2	FLA	9	1	0.85
3	WSH	8	0	0.37
3	FLA	18	3	2.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0