Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 60.2%

TOR: 39.8%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.21

TOR: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • WPG at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	WPG
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	0	0.89
1	TOR	9	0	0.24
2	WPG	19	2	1.56
2	TOR	14	1	1.20
3	WPG	16	0	0.98
3	TOR	18	1	1.16
4	WPG	1	0	0.03
4	TOR	5	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9