Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 0 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 46.8%

EDM: 53.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.98

EDM: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	VAN	EDM
Season SV%	0.000	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	35	29	6	82.9%	5.96	6	-0.04
EDM	Tristan Jarry	31	31	0	100.0%	2.96	3	2.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • VAN at home vs EDM: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	EDM 6 - 1 VAN	EDM	EDM
2026-01-17	VAN 0 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 EDM	VAN	EDM
2025-10-11	EDM 3 - 1 VAN	EDM	EDM
2025-01-23	EDM 6 - 2 VAN	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	11	0	0.42
1	EDM	16	1	0.92
2	VAN	17	1	1.39
2	EDM	24	5	3.61
3	VAN	16	2	1.15
3	EDM	17	0	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown