Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-01-21 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

CGY: 37.9%

PIT: 62.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.80

PIT: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	CGY 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-10	PIT 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PIT
2024-11-30	PIT 6 - 2 CGY	PIT	PIT
2024-10-22	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY
2024-03-02	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.65
1	PIT	16	0	0.69
2	CGY	18	0	0.83
2	PIT	15	0	1.26
3	CGY	8	1	0.40
3	PIT	11	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.8 - 3.5