Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-01-21 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 42.9%

PIT: 57.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.13

PIT: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	CGY	PIT
Season SV%	0.901	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	25	21	4	84.0%	3.15	1	-0.85
PIT	Stuart Skinner	19	18	1	94.7%	1.88	1	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	CGY 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-10	PIT 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PIT
2024-11-30	PIT 6 - 2 CGY	PIT	CGY
2024-10-22	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY
2024-03-02	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.65
1	PIT	16	0	0.69
2	CGY	18	0	0.83
2	PIT	15	0	1.26
3	CGY	8	1	0.40
3	PIT	11	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown