Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-01-24 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 51.8%

MTL: 48.2%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.30

MTL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Stat	BOS	MTL
Season SV%	0.903	0.863
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	3.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	25	22	3	88.0%	3.13	2	0.13
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	20	16	4	80.0%	3.92	4	-0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • BOS at home vs MTL: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	1	0.83
1	MTL	11	1	0.87
2	BOS	17	2	1.91
2	MTL	17	1	1.25
3	BOS	11	1	1.19
3	MTL	14	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown