Florida Panthers at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-01-24 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Florida Panthers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 53.7%

FLA: 46.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.48

FLA: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	MIN	FLA
Season SV%	0.912	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	34	30	4	88.2%	3.82	3	-0.18
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	21	18	3	85.7%	2.65	2	-0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs FLA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	FLA 2 - 3 MIN	MIN	MIN
2026-01-24	MIN 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	MIN
2024-12-18	MIN 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	MIN
2024-10-22	FLA 1 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-01-19	FLA 4 - 6 MIN	MIN	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	7	0	0.32
1	FLA	16	2	1.61
2	MIN	15	1	1.52
2	FLA	19	0	1.12
3	MIN	7	1	0.80
3	FLA	11	1	0.90
4	MIN	0	0	0.00
4	FLA	1	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1