Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-28 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 43.0%

COL: 57.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.11

COL: 2.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-28	OTT 5 - 2 COL	OTT	COL
2026-01-08	COL 8 - 2 OTT	COL	COL
2025-03-20	OTT 1 - 5 COL	COL	OTT
2024-10-27	COL 5 - 4 OTT	COL	COL
2024-01-16	OTT 4 - 7 COL	COL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	1	0.74
1	COL	4	0	0.09
2	OTT	10	0	0.88
2	COL	9	1	0.84
3	OTT	9	4	2.98
3	COL	24	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 2.6