Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-28 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 46.3%

COL: 53.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.24

COL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

J. Reimer

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	OTT	COL
Season SV%	—	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	J. Reimer	18	16	2	88.9%	1.92	1	-0.08
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	23	18	5	78.3%	4.59	5	-0.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-28	OTT 5 - 2 COL	OTT	COL
2026-01-08	COL 8 - 2 OTT	COL	COL
2025-03-20	OTT 1 - 5 COL	COL	OTT
2024-10-27	COL 5 - 4 OTT	COL	COL
2024-01-16	OTT 4 - 7 COL	COL	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	1	0.74
1	COL	4	0	0.09
2	OTT	10	0	0.88
2	COL	9	1	0.84
3	OTT	9	4	2.98
3	COL	24	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown