Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 48.1%

PHI: 51.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.98

PHI: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	BOS	PHI
Season SV%	0.903	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	36	33	3	91.7%	3.95	7	0.95
PHI	Samuel Ersson	27	21	6	77.8%	3.36	3	-2.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BOS at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	PHI
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-11-02	PHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	0	1.34
1	PHI	12	2	0.81
2	BOS	13	2	1.22
2	PHI	16	2	1.50
3	BOS	11	1	0.80
3	PHI	19	3	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown