Los Angeles Kings at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 45.7%

LAK: 54.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.31

LAK: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	BUF	LAK
Season SV%	0.906	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	38	37	1	97.4%	2.91	1	1.91
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	32	28	4	87.5%	3.22	2	-0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs LAK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	LAK 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	LAK
2026-01-29	BUF 4 - 1 LAK	BUF	LAK
2024-11-20	LAK 0 - 1 BUF	BUF	LAK
2024-10-10	BUF 1 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2024-02-13	BUF 7 - 0 LAK	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	10	0	0.73
1	LAK	17	1	0.86
2	BUF	18	1	1.37
2	LAK	22	0	1.25
3	BUF	11	1	1.12
3	LAK	14	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown