Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 7 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 41.9%

COL: 58.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.29

COL: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	MTL	COL
Season SV%	0.889	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	29	26	3	89.7%	3.30	4	0.30
COL	Scott Wedgewood	28	21	7	75.0%	3.15	2	-3.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs COL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	COL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	1	0.96
1	COL	10	0	0.39
2	MTL	15	0	1.01
2	COL	15	3	1.70
3	MTL	17	1	1.18
3	COL	15	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown