Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-01-29 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 65.3%
WPG: 34.7%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.90
WPG: 3.11
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 69%
Over 6.5: 58%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | TBL | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.958 | 0.917 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TBL at home vs WPG: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | TBL 4 - 1 WPG | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-14 | TBL 4 - 1 WPG | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-03 | WPG 7 - 4 TBL | WPG | WPG |
| 2024-01-02 | WPG 4 - 2 TBL | WPG | WPG |
| 2023-11-22 | TBL 2 - 3 WPG | WPG | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:58 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:37 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:25 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:17 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:52 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 65.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 7.0
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.9 - 3.1