Florida Panthers at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 5 - 4 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 39.5%

FLA: 60.5%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.70

FLA: 2.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	STL	FLA
Season SV%	0.901	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	20	16	4	80.0%	3.32	2	-0.68
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	31	26	5	83.9%	2.34	0	-2.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs FLA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	STL 5 - 4 FLA	STL	FLA
2025-12-20	FLA 2 - 6 STL	STL	FLA
2025-02-06	STL 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-12-20	FLA 2 - 1 STL	FLA	FLA
2024-01-09	STL 1 - 5 FLA	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	12	0	0.97
1	FLA	14	2	1.64
2	STL	13	0	0.65
2	FLA	13	0	1.24
3	STL	16	0	0.72
3	FLA	11	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown