San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 75.6%

SJS: 24.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.90

SJS: 2.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	EDM	SJS
Season SV%	0.883	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	21	18	3	85.7%	1.68	1	-1.32
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	32	28	4	87.5%	3.17	2	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • EDM at home vs SJS: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	SJS 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-03-17	EDM 5 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2026-02-28	SJS 5 - 4 EDM	SJS	EDM
2026-01-29	EDM 4 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2025-04-16	SJS 0 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	0	0.64
1	SJS	8	0	0.59
2	EDM	10	0	0.44
2	SJS	14	0	0.76
3	EDM	18	2	1.91
3	SJS	6	1	0.34
4	EDM	2	0	0.17
4	SJS	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 75.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.9 - 2.3