San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 58.4%

SJS: 41.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.53

SJS: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	CGY	SJS
Season SV%	0.901	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	25	23	2	92.0%	3.47	4	1.47
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	42	39	3	92.9%	4.72	5	1.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CGY at home vs SJS: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	22	1	1.01
1	SJS	15	2	1.56
2	CGY	22	2	1.67
2	SJS	9	2	0.91
3	CGY	18	2	2.03
3	SJS	11	0	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown