Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2026-01-31 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)
🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 42.2%
CAR: 57.8%
Expected Goals
WSH: 2.96
CAR: 3.25
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 31-6-2 | 0.894 SV% | 2.47 GAA
| Stat | WSH | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.887 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.957 | 0.920 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs CAR: 5-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | WSH 4 - 3 CAR | WSH | CAR |
| 2025-12-11 | WSH 2 - 3 CAR | CAR | CAR |
| 2025-11-11 | CAR 1 - 4 WSH | WSH | CAR |
| 2025-05-15 | WSH 1 - 3 CAR | CAR | CAR |
| 2025-05-12 | CAR 5 - 2 WSH | CAR | CAR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:27 | CAR | Goal |
| 1 | 17:51 | CAR | Goal |
| 2 | 04:16 | CAR | Goal |
| 2 | 07:52 | CAR | Goal |
| 2 | 14:58 | CAR | Goal |
| 3 | 13:18 | WSH | Goal |
| 4 | 01:42 | WSH | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes
Expected: 3.0 - 3.3
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