New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 1 New Jersey Devils

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 65.5%

NJD: 34.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.96

NJD: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	OTT	NJD
Season SV%	0.881	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	27	26	1	96.3%	1.59	0	0.59
NJD	Jake Allen	34	30	4	88.2%	3.30	3	-0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs NJD: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NJD 4 - 3 OTT	NJD	NJD
2026-01-31	OTT 4 - 1 NJD	OTT	OTT
2025-12-09	OTT 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	OTT
2025-03-22	NJD 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-01-19	NJD 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	10	0	0.55
1	NJD	12	0	0.34
2	OTT	19	2	1.38
2	NJD	11	0	0.52
3	OTT	15	1	1.37
3	NJD	13	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown