Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 7 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 62.4%

MIN: 37.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.55

MIN: 2.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	EDM	MIN
Season SV%	0.906	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Tristan Jarry	29	22	7	75.9%	4.34	4	-2.66
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	42	39	3	92.9%	4.22	4	1.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • EDM at home vs MIN: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	EDM 3 - 7 MIN	MIN	EDM
2025-12-20	MIN 5 - 2 EDM	MIN	EDM
2025-12-02	EDM 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	EDM
2025-01-15	MIN 3 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-12	MIN 1 - 7 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	2	1.28
1	MIN	19	3	2.01
2	EDM	28	1	1.62
2	MIN	12	1	1.15
3	EDM	26	1	1.32
3	MIN	14	0	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown