Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-02-01 • Raymond James Stadium

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Boston Bruins (SO)

Win Probability

TBL: 68.8%

BOS: 31.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.31

BOS: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs BOS: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	0.76
1	BOS	25	1	2.04
2	TBL	27	0	2.08
2	BOS	11	0	1.13
3	TBL	11	0	0.48
3	BOS	7	0	0.30
4	TBL	13	0	1.21
4	BOS	0	0	0.00
5	TBL	2	1	0.97
5	BOS	2	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 4.3 - 2.7