Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-02-01 • Raymond James Stadium

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Boston Bruins (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 64.0%

BOS: 36.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.68

BOS: 2.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	TBL	BOS
Season SV%	0.913	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	35	30	5	85.7%	3.66	1	-1.34
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	48	42	6	87.5%	5.50	2	-0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TBL at home vs BOS: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	0.76
1	BOS	25	1	2.04
2	TBL	27	0	2.08
2	BOS	11	0	1.13
3	TBL	11	0	0.48
3	BOS	7	0	0.30
4	TBL	13	0	1.21
4	BOS	0	0	0.00
5	TBL	2	1	0.97
5	BOS	2	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 4.7 - 2.5