Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2026-02-02 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 49.3%

BUF: 50.7%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.21

BUF: 3.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	FLA	BUF
Season SV%	0.888	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	20	15	5	75.0%	3.31	3	-1.69
BUF	Alex Lyon	42	39	3	92.9%	4.34	3	1.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • FLA at home vs BUF: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-27	FLA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	FLA
2026-02-02	FLA 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-12	BUF 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-18	BUF 3 - 0 FLA	BUF	FLA
2025-04-12	FLA 3 - 2 BUF	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	14	2	1.32
1	BUF	13	1	0.65
2	FLA	26	1	1.81
2	BUF	13	1	1.19
3	FLA	19	0	1.21
3	BUF	10	1	1.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown