Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2026-02-02 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 58.8%
OTT: 41.2%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.46
OTT: 2.76
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | PIT | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.905 | 0.951 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • PIT at home vs OTT: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | PIT 2 - 3 OTT | OTT | PIT |
| 2025-12-18 | OTT 4 - 0 PIT | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-03-30 | PIT 1 - 0 OTT | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-01-11 | PIT 0 - 5 OTT | OTT | PIT |
| 2024-12-14 | OTT 3 - 2 PIT | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:57 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 01:35 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 14:52 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 08:48 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 06:46 | OTT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.5 - 2.8