Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-02-02 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 51.8%

WPG: 48.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.31

WPG: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	DAL	WPG
Season SV%	0.907	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	24	3	88.9%	2.50	3	-0.50
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	28	24	4	85.7%	4.97	6	0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • DAL at home vs WPG: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	2	1.41
1	WPG	11	0	0.54
2	DAL	17	2	1.69
2	WPG	12	2	1.14
3	DAL	16	2	1.64
3	WPG	12	1	0.66
4	DAL	2	0	0.22
4	WPG	1	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7