Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-02-03 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 71.2%

BUF: 28.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.10

BUF: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	1.08
1	BUF	15	1	0.97
2	TBL	15	1	0.69
2	BUF	7	0	0.34
3	TBL	15	2	1.32
3	BUF	11	0	0.84
4	TBL	3	0	0.39
4	BUF	5	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 4.1 - 2.9