Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-02-03 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 69.2%

BUF: 30.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.89

BUF: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

Stat	TBL	BUF
Season SV%	0.913	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.25

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	23	3	88.5%	2.63	1	-0.37
BUF	Colten Ellis	35	31	4	88.6%	3.48	3	-0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	1.08
1	BUF	15	1	0.97
2	TBL	15	1	0.69
2	BUF	7	0	0.34
3	TBL	15	2	1.32
3	BUF	11	0	0.84
4	TBL	3	0	0.39
4	BUF	5	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.9 - 2.8