Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-02-03 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 48.7%

PIT: 51.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.07

PIT: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • NYI at home vs PIT: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	15	2	1.62
1	PIT	17	2	1.29
2	NYI	12	0	0.53
2	PIT	18	1	1.70
3	NYI	7	0	0.18
3	PIT	15	0	0.99
4	NYI	1	0	0.19
4	PIT	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3