Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-02-03 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 41.9%

PIT: 58.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.86

PIT: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	NYI	PIT
Season SV%	0.910	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	35	31	4	88.6%	3.98	3	-0.02
PIT	Stuart Skinner	23	18	5	78.3%	2.52	2	-2.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs PIT: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	NYI
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	15	2	1.62
1	PIT	17	2	1.29
2	NYI	12	0	0.53
2	PIT	18	1	1.70
3	NYI	7	0	0.18
3	PIT	15	0	0.99
4	NYI	1	0	0.19
4	PIT	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 2.8