Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-02-03 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 2 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 66.9%

WSH: 33.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.84

WSH: 2.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

WSH

C. Stevenson

Stat	PHI	WSH
Season SV%	0.910	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	28	26	2	92.9%	3.09	3	1.09
WSH	C. Stevenson	22	18	4	81.8%	3.27	3	-0.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs WSH: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	9	1	0.96
1	WSH	12	1	1.11
2	PHI	14	1	1.32
2	WSH	10	0	0.79
3	PHI	13	1	0.98
3	WSH	17	2	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown