Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2026-02-03 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 66.8%
TOR: 33.2%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.19
TOR: 3.03
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | EDM | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.841 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.836 | — |
| GAA | 2.73 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs TOR: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | EDM 2 - 5 TOR | TOR | EDM |
| 2025-12-13 | TOR 3 - 6 EDM | EDM | TOR |
| 2025-02-01 | EDM 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | EDM |
| 2024-11-16 | TOR 4 - 3 EDM | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-03-23 | TOR 6 - 3 EDM | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 11:18 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 11:09 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 07:12 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 17:22 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 08:13 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 07:42 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 04:27 | EDM | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 66.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0