Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-02-03 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 73.2%

TOR: 26.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.67

TOR: 2.42

Total Goals

Median: 5.3

Over 5.5: 48%

Over 6.5: 32%

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	TOR

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 73.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.7 - 2.4