Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-02-03 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (77% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 77.0%

TOR: 23.0%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.32

TOR: 2.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	EDM	TOR
Season SV%	0.883	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	27	22	5	81.5%	3.52	1	-1.48
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	36	34	2	94.4%	3.43	1	1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • EDM at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	0	0.86
1	TOR	11	0	0.99
2	EDM	24	1	1.80
2	TOR	17	0	1.18
3	EDM	11	0	0.76
3	TOR	10	1	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 77.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown