Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-02-03 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (81% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 80.9%

TOR: 19.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 4.13

TOR: 2.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • EDM at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	0	0.86
1	TOR	11	0	0.99
2	EDM	24	1	1.80
2	TOR	17	0	1.18
3	EDM	11	0	0.76
3	TOR	10	1	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 80.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.1 - 2.3