Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2026-02-04 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 5 - 4 Boston Bruins (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 53.0%

BOS: 47.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.26

BOS: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Stat	FLA	BOS
Season SV%	0.888	0.882
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	3.60

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	32	27	5	84.4%	4.80	3	-0.20
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	30	24	6	80.0%	5.60	3	-0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • FLA at home vs BOS: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	FLA 2 - 1 BOS	FLA	FLA
2026-02-04	FLA 5 - 4 BOS	FLA	FLA
2025-10-21	BOS 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-03-11	BOS 3 - 2 FLA	BOS	FLA
2025-01-11	FLA 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	15	0	1.30
1	BOS	16	1	1.18
2	FLA	16	1	1.58
2	BOS	15	0	1.46
3	FLA	10	0	0.47
3	BOS	11	1	0.99
4	FLA	4	0	0.39
4	BOS	3	0	0.23
5	FLA	4	2	1.85
5	BOS	3	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 5 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0