Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-02-04 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 53.6%

MTL: 46.4%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.13

MTL: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Stat	WPG	MTL
Season SV%	0.907	0.863
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	3.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	27	22	5	81.5%	5.44	7	0.44
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	37	36	1	97.3%	4.96	5	3.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	WPG 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	WPG
2025-12-03	MTL 3 - 2 WPG	MTL	MTL
2025-01-28	MTL 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-14	WPG 4 - 2 MTL	WPG	WPG
2023-12-18	WPG 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	21	2	1.67
1	MTL	14	1	1.30
2	WPG	22	1	1.72
2	MTL	13	1	1.16
3	WPG	19	2	1.57
3	MTL	14	5	2.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown