Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2026-02-04 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 50.6%
MTL: 49.4%
Expected Goals
WPG: 3.22
MTL: 3.41
Total Goals
Median: 7.2
Over 5.5: 76%
Over 6.5: 62%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 23-23-11 | 0.895 SV% | 2.86 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | WPG | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.867 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.846 | 0.938 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WPG at home vs MTL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | WPG 1 - 5 MTL | MTL | WPG |
| 2025-12-03 | MTL 3 - 2 WPG | MTL | WPG |
| 2025-01-28 | MTL 1 - 4 WPG | WPG | WPG |
| 2024-12-14 | WPG 4 - 2 MTL | WPG | WPG |
| 2023-12-18 | WPG 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | WPG |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.2 - 3.4
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