San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-02-04 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 2 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 81.8%

SJS: 18.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.10

SJS: 1.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	COL	SJS
Season SV%	0.924	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	25	23	2	92.0%	2.22	1	0.22
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	42	38	4	90.5%	5.66	4	1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • COL at home vs SJS: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	COL 4 - 2 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-26	COL 6 - 0 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-01	SJS 3 - 2 COL	SJS	COL
2025-03-06	COL 7 - 3 SJS	COL	COL
2024-12-19	SJS 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	21	0	1.68
1	SJS	9	0	0.55
2	COL	22	3	2.72
2	SJS	11	1	0.86
3	COL	14	1	1.26
3	SJS	16	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 81.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown