Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-02-04 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 47.8%

EDM: 52.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.89

EDM: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 55%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • CGY at home vs EDM: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	CGY
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	EDM
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	16	0	1.27
1	EDM	12	0	1.05
2	CGY	15	0	0.74
2	EDM	17	0	1.15
3	CGY	17	4	1.97
3	EDM	17	0	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3