Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-02-05 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 43.9%

PIT: 56.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.97

PIT: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	BUF	PIT
Season SV%	0.906	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	32	27	5	84.4%	5.15	6	0.15
PIT	Arturs Silovs	27	25	2	92.6%	3.46	2	1.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs PIT: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	BUF
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	1	0.95
1	PIT	13	0	0.90
2	BUF	18	0	1.15
2	PIT	8	1	0.85
3	BUF	16	1	1.36
3	PIT	22	5	3.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown