Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-02-05 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 1 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TBL: 67.4%

FLA: 32.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.12

FLA: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.40
1	FLA	27	0	1.53
2	TBL	13	1	0.84
2	FLA	11	1	0.71
3	TBL	12	0	0.87
3	FLA	9	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 4.1 - 2.8